Let’s get digital

April 12, 2018

For decades, product, process and engineering have been improved by using 3D rendering of computer-aided design (CAD) models, asset models and process simulations to validate manufacturability and increase efficiency. However, the convergence of several technological innovations has brought about a new phase in the digital representation of physical objects, with an increasing range of possible applications.

Our observations

  • The idea of digital twins was predated by ‘pairing technology’, first developed by NASA in their production and maintenance of spacecraft components. This technology made it possible for NASA engineers to test repairs for the Apollo 13 mission, helping to bring the crew back home safely.
  • A study by Vanson Bourne Research found that 82% of surveyed companies in various industries had experienced at least one downtime outage in the past three years, with the average company having experienced two (72% said that zero downtime is a high priority). Furthermore, most companies (70%) lack complete awareness when equipment assets need updates or maintenance. Additional research in the study showed that the average cost of downtime in these fields is $250,000 per hour. Digital twins and predictive analysis can help solve these problems before they even actually occur, and plan preventive updates.
  • By 2018, International Data Corporation predicts that companies investing in IoT-based operational sensing and cognitive-based situational awareness will see 30% improvements in the cycle times of impacted critical processes. Furthermore, Gartner predicts that by 2021, 50% of large industrial companies will be using digital twins, resulting in those organizations gaining a 10% improvement in cost effectiveness.
  • The digital twin market was valued at $1.8 billion in 2016 but will reach $15.7 billion by 2023, growing at a CAGR of 37.9%, according to a study by Markets and Markets.
  • GE has established a ‘digital wind farm’ by using a digital environment to configure physical wind turbines. The integration of the wind energy software with hardware can increase energy production by as much as 20%, creating around $100 million in extra revenue over the wind turbine’s life, as the digital copy in the cloud is fed with operations data every second.

Connecting the dots

The development and application of digital twins has accelerated in recent years. Digital twins are cloud-based virtual representations of physicals assets, hence have profited from the decreased cost of cloud computing and data management. The decreasing costs in nanotechnology – particularly sensor technology – and increased digitization of our living world has made it easier to feed digital twins with data from our devices and things we do. By connecting digital twins with physical assets using real-time data, physical products and processes are virtually reproduced into a digital environment. Here, machine-learning algorithms further analyze these physical assets, thereby reducing downtime and maintenance costs, R&D costs by digital prototyping and analyze further efficiency improvements into the ecosystems.Although virtually representing physical objects and processes is not new, digital twins are another evolution of the digitization of our living world. This starts at the most basic level, as particular aspects of physical products and processes are simply mirrored by digital data systems, e.g. rows of data about the specifications of a car, an Excel with the groceries we buy or our mobile browsing history. This information can is used to physically calibrate and test the product or process to a set of preferred values and metrics, such as reducing leakage within car motors or boosting online grocery purchases. The next phase is digitizing the whole product or process lifecycle, and feed it with real-time data. In the context of the Internet of Things, these digital datasets are used to improve product lifecycles and in the Fourth Industrial Revolution to improve and enhance production processes. Cloud-based digital twins are another step in the evolution in the digitization of our living worlds, albeit with revolutionary implications. First of all, multiple and different cloud-based datasets about physical products and processes can be connected, hence fully simulating ecosystems, such as life in a biological ecosystem like a pool or a factory’s entire throughput process. This core aspect of removing the silos by merging metadata from different sources and processes, makes digital twins suited for predictive analysis of products and analyzing interactions and impacts on complex systems. Digital twins combined with real-time data will boost predictive repair for products, such as cars that get a message that they are up for maintenance or patients that need to see a doctor because their personalized digital health record shows anomalies. This means that consumers and business will perceive their products as permanent, semi-finished products, which will increasingly stimulate ‘as-a-service’ business models, e.g. car manufacturers who can adjust car specifications at consumer request. This has a very broad spectrum of possible applications. For example, digital twins help engineers determine the effects of adjustments to a particular wind turbine, pharmacists determine what the effects of a particular drug are on the human body and how it relates to other drugs and chemists develop new materials. As our digital realities match our physical one better and better, digital twins will play an increasing role developing and managing new products and processes.

Implications

  • Digital twins enforce OEMs to become software vendors of their own equipment in order to reduce operational maintenance and R&D costs. Enabling technologies are 5G (real-time data input), AI (better predictive analysis) and cloud computing (storage of all data that generate digital twins of physical products and processes). Drones, as we have written before, might become the means to acquire all this data in large and complex environments.
  • By being able to test, analyze and predict the effects of solutions and methods on digital twins, developers, scientists and politicians can test the effects of the ideas and solutions they propose. In this way, digital twins will boost digitization of industries and problems that are currently hardly digitized because of their high complexity (i.e. climate change) and because of high upfront CAPEX (i.e. construction).
  • The next step after digital twins in the digitization of our living worlds is that our whole reality, the ‘most meta of all metadata’, will get a digital twin, as we have speculated before. This brings big opportunities to create fully immersive media and gaming worlds. Making this a reality requires, at least, the computational power of quantum computers. The most radical scenario is that quantum computers are able to create a simulacrum of reality, one that is not a copy of our ‘real’ reality, but one that has a truth on its own: a hyperreality.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: the object
Humans shape tools.

We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans.

We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time.

We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils.

Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command.
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2. The machine
Category: the object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion.
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3. The robot
Category: the object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual.
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4. Intelligence
Category: the object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me?
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5. The medium
Category: the object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message.
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6. The artisan
Category: the human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work.
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About the author(s)

Researcher Pim Korsten has a background in continental philosophy and macroeconomics. At the thinktank, he primarily focuses on research, consultancy projects, and writing articles related to technology, politics, and the economy. He has a keen interest in the philosophy of history and economics, metamodernism, and cultural anthropology.

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