While we still think of it as the battleground of the American war, Vietnam has been free from prolonged conflict for decades. Although part of Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s location on the edge of the peninsula points towards cultural connections to East Asia. Indeed, Vietnam shares deeply rooted traditions with the Asian Tigers. Moreover, by “triangulating” between the world’s superpowers, Vietnam could boost its potential as an Asian Tiger.
For centuries, Vietnam was either divided through internal conflict or conquered by the Chinese empire. An independent Vietnam in its present S-like form was only established in 1802. However, from 1862 onwards, French colonization, conflict with China and the American war wreaked havoc on Vietnamese stability. During this time, Vietnam created a proud national identity by winning wars against all of these countries. While Vietnam is still not on most people’s radar, its current path enables stable economic development free from foreign intervention.While Vietnam is part of Southeast Asia, its location on the eastern edge of the peninsula points towards its cultural connection to the East Asian world. In 111 B.C., the Chinese Han dynasty incorporated the southern “Vietnamese” lands into its empire. The Vietnamese people remained there until the 10th century as inhabitants of China’s frontier province of Jiaozhi. In times of independence, however, Vietnamese leaders proclaimed to be part of superior Han civilization – much like medieval kings in Europe claimed to be forming the new Roman empire. Indeed, Vietnamese rulers, after overcoming Chinese conquest, always turned to Chinese statecraft. In the 15th century, the Vietnamese borrowed from Chinese legal codes, military science, and a bureaucratic model for organizing its territory. In the 19th century, when a national Vietnamese state emerged, the emperor Gia Long turned Vietnam into a Confucian-structured civilian government: he restored meritocratic examination systems and built academies to train elites for government service. Most importantly, state-led development, rational bureaucracies and Confucian examination systems were components of modernity in all East Asian countries (i.e. China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). Indeed, Vietnam’s Confucian roots place the country close to these Asian Tigers that became successful through state-led economic development, highlighting Vietnam’s potential as a future economic powerhouse.While Confucian culture is deeply rooted in Vietnam, the country’s troubled relationship with China will guide its trajectory into a new direction in the coming years. Possibly for the first time in history, Vietnam has the opportunity to protect itself from China’s ambitions by balancing against another superpower. We have previously noted that Asian countries will increasingly seek “triangular” relationships with China and the U.S., extracting benefits from both. As such, to protect itself from China in the face of rising economic dependence, Vietnam will increasingly move closer to the U.S. (already its largest export destination). By benefiting from rising Chinese wealth while ensuring security through cooperation with the U.S., Vietnam’s trajectory as an Asian Tiger could gain momentum.
