The blue frontier

May 3, 2018

When we think about the next frontier for humanity, we think about space. However, closer to home, the world’s seas are perhaps undergoing more important exploration. Artificial island construction is gaining momentum in struggles over sovereignty, rapid urbanization pushes cities to expand into the sea, and a great game for undersea resources is unfolding. The Blue Frontier still awaits us.

Our observations

  • From the South China Sea to the Arctic, there is a battle to build artificial islands to claim sovereignty over the seas. China’s island-building in the South China Sea has long angered its neighbors, as China created more than 17 times more land in 20 months than all the other countries combined did in the past 40 years. Meanwhile, Russia is building several artificial islands in the arctic Barents Sea.
  • Many countries have built artificial islands for functional infrastructure such as airports (e.g. Japan, China, Qatar) and windfarms (as the Netherlands is planning in the North Sea).
  • The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) states that the high seas (defined by the dark blue areas on this map) are open to all states (article 87) and no state may subject any part of the high seas to its sovereignty (article 89).
  • The Seasteading Institute has been trying to build “floating cities” for years in order to “escape rising sea levels, overpopulation and poor governance.” The organization currently cooperates with French Polynesia for its pilot project and is trying to raise funds through a cryptographic token.
  • Land reclamation projects to expand cities into the sea have gained momentum. Around 25% of Singapore and 20% of Tokyo are artificial islands built out into the sea. Malaysia is also rapidly expanding into the sea. The Dutch province of Flevoland is the world’s largest land reclamation project.
  • Both state-owned and private “mobile sovereignty” platforms roam the seas. Modern oilrigs no longer need to be moored to the ocean floor and use GPS-driven systems that direct hydraulic jets to hold the rig in position – and they can move around the world. Wang Yilin, chairman of the Chinese state-owned oil company CNOOC, has called their towable deep-water rigs part of China’s “mobile national sovereignty”.
  • We have written before about the rising popularity of cruise ships among young people, and how these ships might in the future evolve further and turn into a type of self-driving city.

Connecting the dots

Global maritime history has always been characterized by struggles over securing trading posts (e.g. colonialism, China’s BRI) and harnessing natural resources (e.g. oil, food, metals). In line with this history, the current momentum behind artificial island construction, land reclamation, and underwater resource exploration is driven by several trends, and could, once again, have profound geopolitical implications.Artificial islands and land reclamation projects have become symbols of modernity, but their origin actually dates back millennia. In prehistoric Scotland and Ireland, and in the city of Tenochtitlan, the Aztec predecessor of Mexico City, people built islands for ceremonial or political purposes. Modern-day artificial islands, however, serve many functions, such as relieving overcrowded cities, airports, windfarms, oil drilling and tourism. As a result, demand for dredgers, massive ships that lay the foundation for artificial islands, is rising rapidly. Most importantly, land reclamation (extending land into the sea) is no different from artificial islands: both serve to expand valuable landmass and, whether intentional or not, function as claims to sovereignty. Indeed, while China angers its neighbors by building artificial islands in disputed territories, Malaysia and Indonesia have stopped exporting sand to Singapore because the city-state’s land reclamation is threatening their livelihoods.While we are increasingly raising the seabed to build land, we are also diving down to uncover the resources the seas have to offer. While material dug up in a typical copper or gold mine on land only yields a tiny fraction of useful metal, hydrothermal vents are much richer. Hence, deep-sea mining is gaining momentum. A Japanese expedition off Okinawa discovered enough zinc to keep Japan supplied for an entire year. Nautilus Minerals forecasts that an undersea industry of copper could be worth $30bn a year by 2030. Meanwhile, the food industry could be revolutionized by a shift from land to water as well. Aquaponics, systems which combine aquaculture (raising aquatic animals) with hydroponics (cultivating plants in water), need neither natural light nor soil and only one-third the water of organic farming.These struggles over sovereignty and exploration for resources could have profound geopolitical implications. We are used to think of the “freedom of the seas”, a concept introduced by the Dutch legal scholar Hugo Grotius in his 1609 work Mare Liberum (open sea). However, the freedom of the high seas as defined by UNCLOS does not pertain to areas of overlapping claims that cause legal friction. Instead, we live in the world of Mare Clausum (closed sea) as defined by English jurist John Selden, who responded to Grotius within two decades in order to affirm control over offshore water. We will, indeed, increasingly see states claim sovereignty in hotspots like the Arctic, the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. However, artificial islands are massively expensive. Hence, while land reclamation for global cities will continue, struggles over sovereignty could increasingly be determined by “mobile sovereignty” (e.g. oil rigs, tankers and other structures). In line with this trend, floating oil platforms and cruise ships could become much more than they are now. All in all, while the hype for space exploration continues (e.g. asteroid mining, space tourism), such innovation on the seas could have a much more profound impact in the coming years.

Implications

  • Due to rapid urbanization and land scarcity for coastal cities, more cities will try to expand into the sea, boosting demand for land reclamation expertise. However, as we have noted before, sand scarcity is rising fast. In fact, construction of the famed Palm Islands off the coast of Dubai are currently stalled due to sand scarcity.
  • As land reclamation is becoming more expensive (it has been estimated that the price of building a 5-square-kilometer island 3 meters above sea level is about $4.5bn), there could eventually be more momentum for mobile sovereignty. Relatedly, floating oil platforms and cruise ships could serve broader functions in the future (e.g. resource exploration, food, tourism).
  • Land-scarce and food-import-dependent countries such as the U.A.E. and Singapore could become huge markets for aquaponics, as well as places with frigid climates that are relatively unsuited to other types of agriculture (as Parag Khanna notes in Connectography).

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: the object
Humans shape tools.

We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans.

We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time.

We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils.

Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command.
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2. The machine
Category: the object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion.
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3. The robot
Category: the object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual.
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4. Intelligence
Category: the object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me?
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5. The medium
Category: the object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message.
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6. The artisan
Category: the human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work.
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About the author(s)

At sister company Dasym, Alexander has been assigned a variety of tasks, for his interests transcend branches of knowledge as well as geographical boundaries. In brief, he writes policy papers, interprets and elucidates global developments, and conducts thematic investment research. His academic background spans public administration, history of international relations, and philosophy, having published dissertations on smart cities, Ethiopian sovereignty and independence, and Chinese philosophy towards technology. Integral to his responsibilities, Alexander wades through the latest literature on geopolitics, technology, financial markets and cultural anthropology.

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