Eurasian momentum

August 7, 2018

The Trump administration is engaged in a range of conflicts with adversaries such as Russia and Iran, and it is simultaneously pursuing trade disputes with the EU, China and Japan. As a result, several countries are moving closer to each other, even creating unlikely partnerships. In energy, security and trade, Eurasia is becoming more united.

Our observations

  • France has announced a deal with Russia for Arctic energy production, citing the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran deal as a reason to turn to other countries, such as Russia. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is considering sanctions against German energy companies for participation in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Russia.
  • Earlier this month, the SCO meeting was held in Qingdao, China. The organization is an alternative to NATO, led by China and Russia. Since last year, India and Pakistan are full members and Iran has observer status. The SCO is the world’s largest organization in terms of population and landmass.
  • Recently, Iran signed a provisional free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, the Russian-led trade bloc that also includes former Soviet states such as Kazakhstan, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Armenia.
  • Last month, China also signed a free trade agreement with Eurasian Economic Union.
  • In East Asia, China, Japan and South Korea are taking steps towards a free trade agreement and more cooperation between two development banks, the Chinese-led AIIB and Japanese-led ADB.

Connecting the dots

Over time, the Eurasian plain will again become the most dynamic region of the world, leading to new trade links (as well as conflicts).  As the Atlantic era is coming to an end, this region of the old Silk Road will regain prominence. This is a long-term trend that we discussed extensively elsewhere. Currently, however, U.S. president Donald Trump is pursuing a policy of confrontation that is speeding up this process.One field where this is evident is energy. Europe is even strengthening ties to Russia. Both France and Germany are going ahead with energy deals with Russia, increasing tensions with America. Iran is turning to Asian partners such as China and Russia for energy exports and investments, which will strengthen the role of the “petroyuan”.Another example of growing Eurasian integration was the recent SCO meeting. Although there were some tensions at the summit (India, for instance, did not want to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative), the unity of the group contrasted starkly with the tensions at the simultaneous G7 meeting. The Qingdao agreement of the SCO propagated free trade, regional development and denounced economic sanctions.Most important, however, is the increase in trade agreements. The prospect of economic headwinds resulting from American protectionism is driving countries to deepen trade relations with other partners. Examples are free trade talks in East Asia, Iran’s and China’s FTA with the Russian-led EEU. The latter deal will increase the connectivity between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the European Union. According to the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini, ties between Europe and Asia have never been so strong. She speaks out against “unilateral instincts” and “confrontation to achieve short-term goals”, a clear reference to Trump’s America First policy. Economist Paul Krugman draws an analogy with ancient Rome and speaks of the fall of the American empire. He argues that the Pax Americana rests on a soft power and free trade regime in which partners can flourish. As Trump creates conflict with partners and sees the free trade regime as a “piggybank that everyone else is robbing”, he is undermining American hegemony.Within Eurasia, new tensions will also arise, but America is currently uniting it. And perhaps it is paving the way for a future Pax Sinica.

Implications

  • While protectionism is globally on the rise, we can simultaneously expect more free trade agreements within Eurasia. China in particular can profit from this, and fear of an economic downturn will also push Europe in this direction.
  • As ties in Eurasia strengthen, adversaries of the U.S., such as Russia and Iran, may become emboldened to challenge it.
  • The G7, a group of rich and democratic economies is powerless without the U.S. Thus, the Trump administration has de facto rendered the institution irrelevant. To get a grip on the world’s most pressing issues, new global discussion and governance forums are needed. But in a world of many emerging powers, we can expect the role of G7 economies to be relatively smaller, with more rival institutions being led by China, India and other regional powers.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: the object
Humans shape tools.

We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans.

We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time.

We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils.

Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command.
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2. The machine
Category: the object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion.
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3. The robot
Category: the object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual.
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4. Intelligence
Category: the object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me?
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5. The medium
Category: the object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message.
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6. The artisan
Category: the human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work.
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About the author(s)

At sister company Dasym, Alexander has been assigned a variety of tasks, for his interests transcend branches of knowledge as well as geographical boundaries. In brief, he writes policy papers, interprets and elucidates global developments, and conducts thematic investment research. His academic background spans public administration, history of international relations, and philosophy, having published dissertations on smart cities, Ethiopian sovereignty and independence, and Chinese philosophy towards technology. Integral to his responsibilities, Alexander wades through the latest literature on geopolitics, technology, financial markets and cultural anthropology.

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