The future of public transport

May 3, 2018

From stagecoaches to bullet trains, public transport has always enabled the masses to travel more often and go farther. By now, however, in many places around the world, the private car has marginalized public transport and reduced buses, trams and trains to heavily subsidized modes of transport for the poor and elderly. Today, two major trends, urbanization and the development of autonomous vehicles, raise the question of what the future of public transport will look like.

Our observations

  • In the vast majority of cases, public transport relies on tax-payer support. The so-called Farebox Recovery Ratio varies greatly across cities and regions; from well over 100% (i.e. revenues exceeding costs) in cities like Hong Kong, Osaka, Singapore and London, to as low as 10% in some sprawling cities in the U.S.
  • Technological innovation will affect different modes of public transport. 50% of public transport buses in Europe is projected to be electric by 2025. Buses and rail-based modes will likely become autonomous, possibly saving heavily on labor (a major cost component in public transport). Aerial tramways may add a layer of passenger transport infrastructure to dense cities. Long-distance modes, in the future, may include hyperloop-like systems and even next-gen supersonic
  • Traditional public transport is based on fixed routes and timetables and excellent for moving large numbers of passengers. More recently, public transport operators have increasingly started offering more flexible forms of transport to serve remote areas (e.g. on-demand buses) and last-mile solutions (e.g. ridesharing or bicycles).
  • As we have noted before, the automotive industry is slowly moving away from private passenger cars to various forms of car- and ride-sharing. Many manufacturers have started, or have shares in, car sharing schemes (e.g. Daimler and BMW will even merge their services) and some are considering developing autonomous vehicles specifically for ride-sharing.
  • High-speed rail, and possibly hyperloops in the future, can be competitive with short-distance air travel (up to ~1000km). Usage of Chinese high-speed rail is growing rapidly with some routes served by as many as ten trains per hour. In fact, these trains already carry twice as many passengers as domestic flights and are expanding much more rapidly as well (39% vs 13% annual growth in domestic air travel). In Europe, high-speed rail is struggling with profitability (in Spain and France), because too many routes are underused (and have not resulted in hoped-for regional economic development). Long-distance buses (especially in Germany) provide a low-cost alternative and have impacted high-speed rail ridership.
  • Mobility-as-a-Service is today’s buzz-word when it comes to (public) passenger transport; smart systems are to provide passengers with the most efficient (regarding time and cost) means of transport from A to B. Such trips may include traditional forms of public transport and/or ride-hailing services (e.g. Uber or Lyft), on-demand (commuter) shuttles or rental bikes.

Connecting the dots

Ongoing urbanization, and especially the rise of megacities in the Far-East, makes it increasingly difficult for people to get around. Problems of congestion and air pollution clearly call for public transport to keep the cities of the future accessible and attractive. At the same time, the development of ever smarter vehicles, along with as-a-service models, suggests that public transport is becoming obsolete as private mobility is further democratized and road capacity is used much more efficiently. The short answer to this question is that private mobility will prevail in lower-density rural areas and sprawling cities, while (traditional) public transport prevails in, and between, dense urban centers.True as this might be, the future could also show many hybrid forms of public and private transport and eventually a full merger of the two. First of all, trips may increasingly be intermodal; travelers, supported by smart apps, would switch between modes of transport (e.g. combining traditional train and self-driving pods for the proverbial last mile). Second, private mobility in the future may not be all that private after all; smart systems will maximize the utilization of (autonomous) vehicles, by combining rides, to lower costs and optimize road utilization. And, likewise, public transport already shows signs of moving towards on-demand models and, to some extent, letting go of fixed routes and timetables. In the end, the future of public transport will, to a great extent, depend on political decision making. On the urban level, cities have to decide how much they are able and willing to invest in, and make room for, public transport infrastructure in order to provide high-capacity and high-frequency services. Such decisions may need to go hand-in-hand with measures to stimulate the abovementioned hybrid forms of public and private transport, while disincentivizing motorists; congestion charges, higher parking fees, reducing road and/or parking capacity or raising local registration taxes. On the regional or national level, public transport may play a bigger role when, following the Chinese example, radical choices are made in favor of high-speed rail connections (e.g. investing in separate tracks) that can compete with cars and planes. Not all cities or nations are willing or, more importantly, able to make the necessary investments for high-capacity modes of public transport. Such is, for instance, the case in the U.S., where cities, states and the federal government face severe budgetary constraints and private modes of transport, which typically require less upfront investments, are more likely to prevail. By contrast, in the European and Asian context there may be more room for public transport, driven by public investments.

Implications

  • The big difference in (lack of) profitability of public transport across cities suggests that cities and their operators can still learn a lot from each other. Some cities struggle with outdated infrastructure (e.g. New York City) and may need to invest in significant upgrades, but they may also have to adopt new modes of management and operational planning.
  • Mobility-as-a-service models are still in their early days and have not proven very successful yet. Eventually, they may require autonomous vehicles to realize their potential as labor costs weigh heavily on public transport in general and ride-hailing services especially.
  • Even though (European) governments traditionally invest in public transport infrastructure (and contract operators to provide the actual transport services), more recently, (local) governments are increasingly looking for private investors to invest in the new infrastructure (through public-private partnerships); e.g. in Britain and the Netherlands.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: the object
Humans shape tools.

We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans.

We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time.

We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils.

Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command.
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2. The machine
Category: the object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion.
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3. The robot
Category: the object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual.
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4. Intelligence
Category: the object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me?
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5. The medium
Category: the object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message.
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6. The artisan
Category: the human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work.
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About the author(s)

Sjoerd Bakker is fascinated by the interplay between technology and society, and has studied the role of different actors in the innovation and implementation of new technologies throughout his career. At the thinktank, he is mainly involved in research and consultancy projects for clients, and strategic and thematic research for sister company Dasym. Among other themes, Sjoerd frequently writes and speaks about the power and danger of digital technology, as well as sustainability in both technological and institutional innovation.

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