The European elections and the next five years

June 12, 2024

European politics is in flux, and to some in danger. Recently, Macron stated in an interview with the Economist that Europe is in ‘mortal danger’. And in recent polling conducted across 21 countries, including 10 non-European nations, a third of Europeans and a significant number of non-Europeans believe that the EU will disintegrate within the next 20 years. First of all, the largest war in Europe since 1945 is a major concern, as nearly three-quarters of non-Europeans who think the EU's collapse is likely also expect Russia to win the war in Ukraine. Secondly, if Trump is re-elected, he could withdraw the security support that Europe has relied on from the United States for the past 80 years. Trump has also indicated he would seek a deal with Putin over Ukraine and significantly reduce American military support, which would not only be disastrous for Ukraine on the battlefield but also pose a severe challenge to European security. Even if Europe aims to build up and strengthen its defense industry, achieving strategic autonomy within a year will not be feasible. Thirdly, socioeconomic and cultural issues – such as migration, improving European companies’ competitiveness, rising costs of living, climate change and aging societies – are all driving electoral politics across Europe but also fragmenting the political landscape.

All of this is reflected in the latest European election results, although with less disruptive effects than were feared. Far-right and hard-right parties gained almost a quarter of all votes (up from around 20% in 2019), and performed well in major European countries such as the Netherlands, Germany and France. Still, the ‘center holds’ in Europe, as the center-right EPP won the elections and increased its share of seats compared to the current Parliament. The main question now is whether the ‘mainstream’ political parties and forces can cooperate and elect a new European Commission President (Ursula von der Leyen’s second term is most likely). And in its slipstream, it will be decisive whether some more moderate far-right parties, such as Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia will help to support the center-right, or whether the far- and hard-right factions will form a unity pact of power. Historically, national differences have prevented these parties from doing so, but the given pushback on migration and climate policies could unite them.

Historically, European politics was largely about ‘small politics’ where ‘muddling through’ and some lengthy discussions were enough. But Europeans live in a time where Europe will have to act in terms of ‘high policy’ given its existential threats (Russian and Trumpist threats, managing China, climate change and migration, as well as reviving European industrial policy). The more fragmented, and more right-leaning European Parliament could make this more complex, but will not paralyze the EU. We expect that the ‘colors’ of the next five years European politics will be:

  1. Green: climate change will remain high on the agenda, even though the Green parties have seen some losses. Although it will be more difficult to achieve an ambitious climate agenda, the winning centrist mainstream parties are likely to support the Green New Deal. Next to green will be the ‘green’ of army soldiers in European security, as the war in Ukraine has stirred up and accelerated support for more integration and cooperation of European armies.
  2. Blue: The EU wants to further develop its innovation and digital policies, with a strong focus on trust: all characteristics associated with blue. The contention is that the current Commission led by von der Leyen has now laid the regulatory framework for digitalization (with all recent digital acts, with the AI Act lastly) and that the emphasis will be placed on its implementation in the coming years. With the focus on implementation, more attention is also being paid to prioritizing strategic innovation and investments, and that the European Commission and EU want to play a more active role in this to strengthen its geopolitical role as rule/standard setter. See this overview for the 2020—2025 regulatory cycle and its proposals and acts and that most acts and proposals have now been finished in the European political arena.
  3. Red: As the competition with China will likely intensify in the coming years, for example with respect to the ‘dumping’ of Chinese electric vehicles or political interference in national politics, national safety, security, and sovereignty will be another top priority. In economic terms, this means strengthening European competitiveness and decoupling from its main foes, in political terms more control of foreign interferences, and in socio-cultural sense the soft power reach of other countries. This will intensify if Trump wins the next US elections, possibly straining ties with Europe further. Red is also the framing of rightist parties of the ‘danger’ caused by illegal and legal migration, for the social structures of societies as well as dangers of new terrorist threats. New policies to manage and/or prevent migration will be supported by the right-side of the political spectrum in the coming years, ranging from more funds to asylum organizations to border patrol and control.

European politics will have to navigate these turbulent times, and the urgency and interplay of green, blue, and red themes will shape the continent's future with various scenarios. One scenario can be imagined in which Europe becomes stronger through unity in diversity because of these threats: the green agenda could spearhead innovative environmental technologies, making Europe a leader in sustainable development and exporting innovations and regulation throughout the world. The blue focus on digitalization and strategic innovation could position the EU as a hub for cutting-edge technology and digital governance, adopting radical new technologies to make it sovereign as well as competitive. Red’s emphasis on security and sovereignty might foster a resilient Europe, capable of protecting its interests and values against external pressures, and thus a stronger solidarity and coherence between European member states. The opposite might also happen when the right fractions of European politics derail most political decisions and policies. Then, Europe will reach deeper fragmentation and discord, rather than unity. The green agenda will become a contentious battleground that splits voters and parties even more, highlighting differences in national priorities and economic capabilities. Similarly, the blue focus on digitalization and innovation could benefit some wealthier, more technologically advanced nations, leaving less developed member states struggling to keep up, which could foster resentment and undermine the spirit of collaboration. Moreover, the rush to adopt radical new technologies might outpace the establishment of robust regulatory frameworks, leading to privacy concerns, cybersecurity threats, and public distrust. All the while security and safety issues grow larger with political inaction, thus amplifying national sentiments and protectionist policies. As countries prioritize their own interests, solidarity within the EU could erode, making it more difficult to reach consensus on critical issues.

When mixing these three ‘colors’ of European politics – green, blue, and red – one gets the color ‘gray’. Grey often stands for stability and trustworthiness, as well as neutral and calming. We might hope that the next five years of European politics will be a soft but gradual move from low to high politics, and that European institutions are capable of managing the current threats. All at the same time while trust in the mainstream centrist parties is fading, the ‘old and gray’ continent could emerge stronger from these years towards a less colorful but brighter future.

Series 'AI Metaphors'

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1. The tool
Category: The object
Humans shape tools. We make them part of our body while we melt their essence with our intentions. They require some finesse to use but they never fool us or trick us. Humans use tools, tools never use humans. We are the masters determining their course, integrating them gracefully into the minutiae of our everyday lives. Immovable and unyielding, they remain reliant on our guidance, devoid of desire and intent, they remain exactly where we leave them, their functionality unchanging over time. We retain the ultimate authority, able to discard them at will or, in today's context, simply power them down. Though they may occasionally foster irritation, largely they stand steadfast, loyal allies in our daily toils. Thus we place our faith in tools, acknowledging that they are mere reflections of our own capabilities. In them, there is no entity to venerate or fault but ourselves, for they are but inert extensions of our own being, inanimate and steadfast, awaiting our command. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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2. The machine
Category: The object
Unlike a mere tool, the machine does not need the guidance of our hand, operating autonomously through its intricate network of gears and wheels. It achieves feats of motion that surpass the wildest human imaginations, harboring a power reminiscent of a cavalry of horses. Though it demands maintenance to replace broken parts and fix malfunctions, it mostly acts independently, allowing us to retreat and become mere observers to its diligent performance. We interact with it through buttons and handles, guiding its operations with minor adjustments and feedback as it works tirelessly. Embodying relentless purpose, laboring in a cycle of infinite repetition, the machine is a testament to human ingenuity manifested in metal and motion. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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3. The robot
Category: The object
There it stands, propelled by artificial limbs, boasting a torso, a pair of arms, and a lustrous metallic head. It approaches with a deliberate pace, the LED bulbs that mimic eyes fixating on me, inquiring gently if there lies any task within its capacity that it may undertake on my behalf. Whether to rid my living space of dust or to fetch me a chilled beverage, this never complaining attendant stands ready, devoid of grievances and ever-willing to assist. Its presence offers a reservoir of possibilities; a font of information to quell my curiosities, a silent companion in moments of solitude, embodying a spectrum of roles — confidant, servant, companion, and perhaps even a paramour. The modern robot, it seems, transcends categorizations, embracing a myriad of identities in its service to the contemporary individual. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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4. Intelligence
Category: The object
We sit together in a quiet interrogation room. My questions, varied and abundant, flow ceaselessly, weaving from abstract math problems to concrete realities of daily life, a labyrinthine inquiry designed to outsmart the ‘thing’ before me. Yet, with each probe, it responds with humanlike insight, echoing empathy and kindred spirit in its words. As the dialogue deepens, my approach softens, reverence replacing casual engagement as I ponder the appropriate pronoun for this ‘entity’ that seems to transcend its mechanical origin. It is then, in this delicate interplay of exchanging words, that an unprecedented connection takes root that stirs an intense doubt on my side, am I truly having a dia-logos? Do I encounter intelligence in front of me? (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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5. The medium
Category: The object
When we cross a landscape by train and look outside, our gaze involuntarily sweeps across the scenery, unable to anchor on any fixed point. Our expression looks dull, and we might appear glassy-eyed, as if our eyes have lost their function. Time passes by. Then our attention diverts to the mobile in hand, and suddenly our eyes light up, energized by the visual cues of short videos, while our thumbs navigate us through the stream of content. The daze transforms, bringing a heady rush of excitement with every swipe, pulling us from a state of meditative trance to a state of eager consumption. But this flow is pierced by the sudden ring of a call, snapping us again to a different kind of focus. We plug in our earbuds, intermittently shutting our eyes, as we withdraw further from the immediate physical space, venturing into a digital auditory world. Moments pass in immersed conversation before we resurface, hanging up and rediscovering the room we've left behind. In this cycle of transitory focus, it is evident that the medium, indeed, is the message. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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6. The artisan
Category: The human
The razor-sharp knife rests effortlessly in one hand, while the other orchestrates with poised assurance, steering clear of the unforgiving edge. The chef moves with liquid grace, with fluid and swift movements the ingredients yield to his expertise. Each gesture flows into the next, guided by intuition honed through countless repetitions. He knows what is necessary, how the ingredients will respond to his hand and which path to follow, but the process is never exactly the same, no dish is ever truly identical. While his technique is impeccable, minute variation and the pursuit of perfection are always in play. Here, in the subtle play of steel and flesh, a master chef crafts not just a dish, but art. We're witnessing an artisan at work. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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7. The deficient animal
Category: The human
Once we became upright bipedal animals, humans found themselves exposed and therefore in a state of fundamental need and deficiency. However, with our hands now free and our eyes fixed on the horizon instead of the ground, we gradually evolved into handy creatures with foresight. Since then, human beings have invented roofs to keep them dry, fire to prepare their meals and weapons to eliminate their enemies. This genesis of man does not only tell us about the never-ending struggle for protection and survival, but more fundamentally about our nature as technical beings, that we are artificial by nature. From the early cave drawings, all the way to the typewriter, touchscreens, and algorithmic autocorrections, technics was there, and is here, to support us in our wondering and reasoning. Everything we see and everywhere we live is co-invented by technics, including ourselves. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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8. The enhanced human
Category: The human
In a lab reminiscent of Apple HQ, a figure lies down, receiving his most recent cognitive updates. He wears a sleek transparent exoskeleton, blending the dark look of Bat Man with the metallic of Iron Man. Implemented in his head, we find a brain-computer interface, enhancing his cognitive abilities. His decision making, once burdened by the human deficiency we used to call hesitation or deliberation, now takes only fractions of seconds. Negative emotions no longer fog his mind; selective neurotransmitters enhance only the positive, fostering beneficial social connections. His vision, augmented to perceive the unseen electromechanical patterns and waves hidden from conventional sight, paints a deeper picture of the world. Garbed in a suit endowed with physical augmentations, he moves with strength and agility that eclipse human norms. Nano implants prolong the inevitable process of aging, a buffer against time's relentless march to entropy. And then, as a penultimate hedge against the finite, the cryo-cabin awaits, a sanctuary to preserve his corporal frame while bequeathing his consciousness to the digital immortality of coded existence. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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9. The cyborg
Category: The human
A skin so soft and pure, veins pulsing with liquid electricity. This fusion of flesh and machinery, melds easily into the urban sprawl and daily life of future societies. Something otherworldly yet so comfortingly familiar, it embodies both pools of deep historical knowledge and the yet-to-be. It defies categorization, its existence unraveling established narratives. For some, its hybrid nature is a perplexing anomaly; for others, this is what we see when we look into the mirror. This is the era of the cyborg. (This paragraph was co-authored by a human.)
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About the author(s)

Researcher Pim Korsten has a background in continental philosophy and macroeconomics. At the thinktank, he primarily focuses on research, consultancy projects, and writing articles related to technology, politics, and the economy. He has a keen interest in the philosophy of history and economics, metamodernism, and cultural anthropology.

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